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Bear vs Bull - Solana


*As a reminder, this is not a deep dive but written as a higher-level data-gathering exercise that should help anyone understand a respective project.   


Continuing the Bear vs. Bull series, we'll evaluate one of my favorite chains, Solana. It's a personal favorite due to its ingenious grassroots approach to developer growth with its Superteams, which foster Dapp development (special shout out to Germany's). 


But if you didn’t know better, Solana is a case of two extremes. On one hand, it’s a promising blockchain that offers innovative tech, easy onboarding, and a “from the ground up” developer approach. On the other hand, it is likely the top chain regarding the sheer amount of FUD (news based on Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) with its outages, connection to VCs, and deep ties with FTX.


Initial Thoughts About Solana


I stumbled into Solana in early 2022 while searching for blockchain groups in Berlin, and from the first get-together, it was clear they were different. The general energy with a build-first attitude and focusing on growing the ecosystem through boots-on-the-ground meetups and Hackathons 


Solana is a high-performance L1 blockchain known for its impressive transaction speed and low fees, positioning itself as a competitor to Ethereum in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT spaces. With its unique consensus mechanism combining Proof of History (PoH) with Proof of Stake (PoS), Solana offers high scalability without compromising decentralization, attracting a robust ecosystem of developers and projects.


From its initial launch as an Ethereum competitor to launching its own hardware, the SAGA phone, it has divided blockchain enthusiasts.

Solana, without a doubt, has the strongest DeFi and Degen culture due to its ease of use and low transaction fees. As a web3 game developer, interfacing with most of the community is tough since we're not the typical Solana dev above. But this comes down to two factors-- 1. We're that early, and 2. Mindsets shaped by different playgrounds can be fun but rarely share the same slides. Let's explore its blueprints and foundations to understand the Solana playground's evolution.



History and Milestones


The blueprint for Solana emerged in 2017 from Anatoly Yakovenko's experience at Qualcomm, where he envisioned a blockchain built for speed. From its mainnet launch in March 2020, these milestones shaped its evolution:

Nov 2017 - Whitepaper Published

Anatoly published a whitepaper describing Proof of History, a technique for keeping time between computers without trust. From Anatoly's previous experience designing distributed systems at Qualcomm and Dropbox, he knew that a reliable clock makes network synchronization very simple. When synchronization is simple the resulting network can be blazing fast, bound only by the bandwidth.


Jan 2018 - From C to Rust

In January 2018, Greg Fitzgerald, who had previously worked with Anatoly at Qualcomm, encouraged him to refactor the project into Rust programming language. Greg claimed that the language's safety guarantees would improve software productivity. Anatoly rewrote it in two weeks.


Apr-July 2019 - Initial Coin Offering (ICO) 

Solana raised over $20 million through private token sales during its ICO between April 2018 and July 2019.


Mar 2020 - Mainnet Launch 

Solana’s mainnet beta launched, introducing its unique Proof of History (PoH) consensus mechanism. This mechanism relies on a cryptographic method to generate a trustworthy ordering of transactions/events recorded to the 'ledger' to overcome the issue of time agreement. This enables almost instant finality of thousands of transactions per second.



Major Investment

In June 2021, Solana Labs raised $314 million to accelerate the development of decentralized applications and platforms on Solana. A16z, Polychain, Spartan, GSR, and many others


Network Upgrades 

Continuous upgrades to improve network stability and performance, addressing issues such as outages and enhancing the overall user experience. 


Bear Case


Without much research, you’d still be able to easily spout hyperbolic headlines about Solana’s downtime, security, centralization, and general ownership issues. But that's why we’re doing this, right?! So, let's start with its most notorious issue: network downtime.


Network Stability

Frequent outages have highlighted potential vulnerabilities in Solana’s network stability, impacting user confidence and project reliability. For context, Solana suffered 14 partial or major outages in 2022, including software vulnerabilities in the network, DDoS attacks (denial-of-service), resource exhaustion attacks, and internal bugs. 

It’s not hard to forget that the L1 network is technically in Beta with this kind of numbers, but it gets much better in 2023, with only one major outage in February. And so far, none since, but let's see if they can keep this up.


Security

I might take some liberties here since the network should include the software that fundamentally helps the network and/or is developed by the foundation separately.


Like its spacial namesake, a Wormhole is a connection between two chains that otherwise could not interact with each other. Initially developed as a bridge between the Ethereum and Solana blockchains, Wormhole facilitates decentralized transactions between different chains with Solana.


This brings us to one of the most prominent hacks in blockchain history— the Etherium Solana Wormhole Bridge, in which attackers swiped 120,000 wETH.

There's not much to add to this, but needs to be highlighted.


Institutional Ownership

This might be one of the biggest gripes from degens. Initial ownership in Solana was largely between Insiders (48%) and the Solana Foundation (13%), with potential future allocations earmarked for the community.


The issue with this is blockchain is supposed to be a neutral public infrastructure in which no funny business should take place due to the decentralized nature of its power. However, when the ownership is highly centralized to only a few parties, at a minimum, you can lose confidence. At max, you have opportunities for collusion toward a specific outcome.


Centralization 

While on the topic, let's look at another angle of the centralization debate. Solana’s Proof of History (PoH) mechanism is supposed to enhance speed, but it’s been criticized for contributing to centralization by requiring nodes to have substantial computational power. This means Solana’s network relies on a relatively small number of validators, leading to concerns that power is concentrated among a few entities with monetary and technical capabilities.


Minimum requirements include:

-       1.1 SOL daily for voting

-       12 cores / 24 thread CPU and 256 GB RAM

-       Networking bandwidth of at least 1GBbit/s (10GBit/s is preferred)


Although not unobtainable, these minimum requirements likely exclude those not commercially involved with the chain and geographically in a major tech hub.


This can undermine the network’s decentralization, making it susceptible to collusion and manipulation. A smaller group of validators could potentially control network decisions, manipulate transaction ordering, or implement changes that benefit them disproportionately.


Inflation

Like many chains, Solana has no fixed supply of SOL and, therefore, can scale to infinity.



With some quick digging, here’s the emission schedule and the planned annual inflation.

●      Initial Inflation Rate: 8%

●      Disinflation Rate: -15%

●      Long-term Inflation Rate: 1.5%

Keep in mind that with this emission schedule, supply will increase by 43% by 2027.


Ok, these are the big fears when looking at Solana, but honestly, I see the clear trend even as I write this.


  • We’re far from the days of the common issues with stability, and there haven’t been many other security issues since the introduction of Wormhole (which was paid back!).

  • Institutional ownership peaked in 2021 when the TGE happened, which makes sense as VCs dump their bags to capture high returns quickly.

  • Validators continue to grow monthly, which you can follow at Solana Beach.

  • As for inflation, welcome to a large-scale network that wants to ensure the token is operationally usable. Solana is a platform that does not want to emulate the function of Bitcoin.

Bull Case

I'll keep this section short after giving a mini bull post at the end of the Bear section. But leading with the classic Solana "Pit Viper" sunnies is already point one, so let's jump to point two.


The Tech is the real deal

When the crypto waves settle, technology endures. While many chains promise the world, Solana delivers the foundations of what blockchain was meant to be. Since 2019, when '8 Innovations that Make Solana the First Web-Scale Blockchain' was published, the network has proven that its technological advantages aren't just theoretical—they're battle-tested features pushing web3 forward.


Solana's rapid transaction processing and minimal fees are more than marketing statistics. They're the backbone of an ecosystem where developers can build without compromise and users can interact without friction. Its capabilities stretch beyond basic transactions, creating fertile ground for everything from high-frequency DeFi to dynamic NFT experiences.


Lastly, Firedancer is a new validator client for the network, which Solana Labs founder and CEO Anatoly has said is aimed at increasing speed, reliability, and validator diversity. Its slated mainnet launch is in the first half of 2024. In crypto terms, this means sometime end of 2024, but this update will have massive ramifications on the trilemma. Since its written in C, it provides diversity in the codebase and should increase safety, validator diversification, and speed (although not necessarily needed now).


Strong Developer Community and Ecosystem

Blockchain communities aren't built in Discord alone—they're forged in hackathons, strengthened at meetups, and celebrated at conferences. And no one has mastered this community alchemy quite like Solana.


While other chains throw money at growth, *caugh* Polkadot *caugh*... Solana's "Superteams" have cracked the code on organic community building. These globally distributed catalysts don't just recruit developers but cultivate ecosystems. Globally, they've created a network of innovation hubs that turn local talent into global builders.

The results speak volumes: thousands of projects now call Solana home, each contributing to an ecosystem where DeFi and NFT innovation isn't just encouraged but expected. This is more than a development activity; it's a cultural movement that turns curious developers into committed builders. Shout out to the German Superteam, pictured above, for giving a first-hand view.


Strategic Partnerships & Funding

 

Money talks, but in crypto, smart money tells stories. When Andreessen Horowitz and Polychain Capital led Solana's $314 million raise, it was a vote of confidence from the architects of Web2's transformation backing Web3's future. Solana's team has transformed this capital into a strategic advantage through masterful deployment and ecosystem development. Whereas others have spent on frivolous marketing.


The roster of partnerships reads like a blueprint for mainstream adoption: Visa builds on Solana Pay, Google Cloud runs validators, Brave browser integrates natively, and Circle implements USDC. Each collaboration feels like a move on a chessboard, creating real infrastructure for real-world use cases.


What's more, these partnerships yield a multiplicative effect. Major brands and platforms choosing Solana create a powerful flywheel: users attract developers who build compelling apps, which draw more partners. The ecosystem grows organically, accelerating at web scale while maintaining the performance that made Solana attractive in the first place.


Conclusion


Solana's story transcends typical blockchain metrics. While its technical prowess, blazing speed, and tiny fees draw headlines, its true strength lies in how these fundamentals enable new possibilities. In short, the platform has weathered the FTX aftermath to evolve from a promising experiment into a serious contender for mainstream adoption.


Every transformative technology faces growing pains. Solana's network stability and decentralization challenges mirror the early internet's struggles with reliability and infrastructure. But just as those hurdles were overcome through innovation, Solana's team and community continuously push the boundaries of what's possible.


The blockchain space moves at lightspeed, but Solana has demonstrated something rare: the ability to learn, adapt, and emerge stronger from each challenge. For builders, investors, and users looking toward web3's future, Solana offers more than just potential—it provides a proven playground where next-generation applications are already coming to life. I couldn't be more bullish on this chain and those contributing to its ecosystem, but I want to see more diversity in its builders, specifically from gaming.

Future insights in this series will explore other blockchain platforms, but Solana has set a compelling benchmark for what a modern blockchain can achieve.



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