FORECASTING JOURNAL
A public track record. Every prediction, scored.
Layoffs accelerate as companies increasingly rely on AI to replace low/mid-level roles
Countries race to set global AI regulations, with some adopting loose rules to gain competitive advantage while others (notably EU) fall behind
AGI is technically achieved in 2025, likely in Q1 or Q2, based on trajectory from o3 ARC-AGI results
Nvidia announces a platform for decentralized computing that lets customers monetize idle GPU compute
AI crypto projects peak in Q1 2025 then crash as valuations hit unsustainable levels and market becomes saturated
Meme coins stage a comeback as AI crypto narrative fades, driven by retail investors seeking asymmetric returns
Solana ETF gets approved and Solana becomes a serious contender for flipping Ethereum in market cap
At least one Tier 1 nation announces Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset, triggering a supply crunch
A mobile Web3 game hits $100M ARR, marking blockchain gaming's first major commercial success
Unity or Unreal releases a generative AI co-pilot feature for real-time developer assistance inside the engine
Gaming DAOs acting as publishers fail to gain meaningful traction due to experience gaps and chasing narratives over fundamentals
Universal Basic Income (UBI) moves from theory to active pilot programs in Tier 1 economies
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METHODOLOGY
Predictions are extracted verbatim from published articles. Scoring is binary where possible (correct / incorrect), or marked partial when the core thesis was right but details differed. Confidence % reflects my stated or implied conviction at time of writing. Accuracy is calculated as (correct + 0.5 × partial) ÷ resolved.
No predictions are edited after the fact. Every wrong call stays on the record.