Macro & Markets
The Adoption–Adaptation Gap: What 12,000 Years of Technological Change Tell Us About AI
ChatGPT reached 100 million users in about two months. Institutions move on a slower clock. What 12,000 years of that gap say about AI.
Essays by Patrick McGrath
Writing
AI & Tech
Everything we trade is an argument about electrons
For two hundred years, every abstraction stacked on top of the economy was a wrapper around the same scarcity. The wrapper is cracking.
AI & Tech
I Built Alexandria for My AI Agents
I got tired of re-teaching the same patterns to every AI agent on every project, so I built Alexandria: a shared memory my agents learn from.
Product Management
The Cycle Nexus and Why Most Market Timing Is Noise
A framework for spotting market shifts before they’re obvious. Combines cycle theory, systems thinking, and antifragility into a single diagnostic.
Gaming
Arc Raiders and the Prisoner’s Dilemma
Embark Studios built the prisoner’s dilemma into an extraction shooter. Every squad encounter is a live experiment in trust and betrayal.
AI & Tech
2026 Predictions: AI Goes Local
Desktop agents, prediction markets in your news feed, and the AI stories that won’t land. My 2026 calls, split into signal and noise.
AI & Tech
The Bottleneck Is the Point
Your brain processes 10 bits per second. AI handles millions of tokens. The human context window is the constraint nobody designs around.
AI & Tech
The Five Levels Between ChatGPT and Infrastructure
A clean five-level framework for agentic AI maturity. Diagnose where your team actually is, find the failure mode, and get the next move.
AI & Tech
Every Wall Between Prompts and AI Teams
I spent six months building AI agent teams and screwed up most of it. The five levels of agent maturity, and why skipping ahead costs more.
Crypto & Web3
Bear vs Bull: Base (Coinbase L2)
Base pulled $2.4B in net inflows on Coinbase’s name. I dig into whether developer adoption matches the hype or it’s another subsidized ghost chain.
Gaming
TL;DR: How Telegram Games Actually Work
Hamster Kombat hit 300 million users inside a messaging app. Here’s how Telegram games actually work and why developers are betting big.
AI & Tech
2025 Predictions: Crypto, AI, and Gaming
Predictions for 2025 across work, AI, crypto, gaming and biotech: AGI, meme coins, a Solana ETF, Base, GTA 6 and sovereign Bitcoin reserves.
Macro & Markets
America’s Debt Crisis: The Financial Abyss
America’s federal debt surged 50% in five years to $34.1 trillion. The interest payment crisis, the zero-rate hangover, and what it means for the economy.
Crypto & Web3
The Crypto Voter: A New Political Demographic in 2024
Crypto holders are becoming a voting bloc in the 2024 US election. Who they are, where they live, and why ETFs and swing states matter.
Crypto & Web3
Bear vs Bull: Solana
A concise teardown of the Solana Blockchain, exploring the Bear and Bull case.
Gaming
Gaming in 2023: Mobile’s Shifting Battle
Mobile still leads games revenue, but its growth went negative for the first time. What that means for mobile, PC and console in 2023.
Crypto & Web3
Bear vs Bull: Polygon
Polygon bear vs bull analysis: evaluating MATIC as an Ethereum Layer 2 for gaming and DeFi, from scalability wins to competitive threats in the L2 landscape.
Crypto & Web3
STOP Measuring NFT Collections by Floor Price (FP)
Floor price is a flawed way to judge an NFT collection. Better signals: rarity, utility, community, sales history and who is buying.
Gaming
Tl;dr Tokens in Gaming
Notes from a Pocket Gamer Connects Seattle panel: governance, utility and NFT tokens in games, with a verdict on each.
Macro & Markets
Macro Monday: Web3 and the Supply Chain
How the global supply chain got here, what’s changing, and why Web3 games could give workers in developing economies a well-paid kind of digital work.
Product Management
Understanding Users: A short book list
Product management books on behavioral economics and user psychology, from Thinking Fast and Slow to Predictably Irrational. A curated PM reading list.
Product Management
Foundations of a PM
Where the product manager role came from, starting with a 1931 memo, and what makes someone good at the job today.
Gaming
Crypto games to look out for in 2022 pt. 2
Crypto games to watch in 2022, part 2: Mines of Dalarnia, Ember Sword, Sunflower Farmers, Aurory, and how blockchain enables true digital scarcity.
Gaming
Crypto games to look out for in 2022 pt. 1
Crypto games worth watching in 2022: Star Atlas, DeRace, Thetan Arena, Gods Unchained and Splinterlands, plus Dawn Protocol for esports.
